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,远月跌幅见底。同时,需警惕“反内卷”背景下氧化铝产能收储出现超预期规模,这可能触发超跌反弹。  “中长期来看,按当前产出比例,氧化铝产能确实存在一定过剩压力,虽不严重,但将推动供需结构从紧平衡逐渐转向宽松。”胡彬总结,整体来看,对氧化铝期货未来走势持偏空观点。鉴于氧化铝期货行情往往波动剧烈,逢高沽空的操作思路比较适合当前市场。  傅莹则认为,氧化铝供需基本面仍将维持过剩状态,压制期货价格上行空间

增量有限。各环节氧化铝库存均处于持续累积状态,上期所氧化铝交割库库存更是从前期的不足5000吨快速攀升至近期的4万吨。短期看,氧化铝基本面压力正在兑现,价格表现疲弱。  展望后市,王珩认为,氧化铝期货8月注册仓单逐步增加,有望缓解此前的挤仓风险。空头基于对远月的弱势预期持续压盘,导致Back结构稀释了正套力量,其中不乏炒作资金在起作用,这需要靠现实数据来证实或证伪。氧化铝基本面支撑减弱,存在回调压

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